Public debt in Brazil: why does the Central Bank say 82.9 percent of GDP and the IMF calculate more than 93 percent?

Anyone who tracks macroeconomic indicators to plan investments, price long term contracts, or evaluate country risk often encounters an apparent contradiction in reports about Brazil. On one hand, official statistics released in Brasília show the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) at 82.9% of GDP according to the Central Bank methodology (observed in August 2026). On the other hand, international reports show that Brazilian debt reached 93.3% of GDP at the close of 2025, with an annual projection of 97.8% of GDP for 2026 in the official IMF Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 26/191).

More than 10 to 14 percentage points of GDP separate the two readings, which is equivalent to well over R$ 1.3 trillion in difference over a GDP that totaled R$ 12.7 trillion in 2025.

There is no fraud or sum error on either side. What exists is a fascinating difference in institutional and accounting architecture between Brazil and the international standard. Understanding this difference helps any business leader read economic reports without falling into superficial traps.

1. How the relationship between the Treasury and the Central Bank works in Brazil

To understand the divergence, we must first look at a peculiarity of Brazilian legislation (such as the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the 1988 Constitution).

In many developed countries, the Central Bank controls the daily liquidity of the economy (draining or injecting money into banks to keep the interest rate on target) by issuing its own securities or remunerating voluntary deposits directly. In Brazil, the Fiscal Responsibility Law prohibited the Central Bank from issuing its own public debt securities starting in 2002.

So that the Brazilian Central Bank could conduct monetary policy and drain excess reals from the market (for example, through so-called repo operations), the National Treasury had to issue a large volume of public bonds and deliver them to the Central Bank portfolio.

Thus, inside the vault of the Central Bank of Brazil, there are two portions of Treasury bonds:

1. The portion delivered to the market in repo operations: the BC sells the bond today to private banks to take money out of circulation and commits to repurchase it tomorrow or in a few weeks, paying the Selic rate.
2. The free portfolio of the Central Bank: bonds issued by the Treasury that are kept in the monetary authority balance sheet as an operational cushion, without having been passed on to private banks at that moment.

2. The BCB ruler (since 2008) versus the IMF ruler

It is precisely in the treatment of this second portion (the free bonds in the BC portfolio) that the two methodologies separate.

In 2008, the Central Bank of Brazil updated its methodology for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) with a defensible economic argument: if a bond issued by the Treasury sits in the Central Bank own vault and was not sold to the private sector, it represents an intragovernmental debt with no net impact on the market. Therefore, the BCB methodology adds all repo operations to the gross debt, but excludes the free bonds in the BC portfolio, resulting in 82.9% of GDP in August 2026.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) applies a standardized rule to compare nearly 200 countries. In the IMF international accounting, the "General Government" comprises the Treasury, Social Security, States, and Municipalities, treating the Central Bank separately. Consequently, every bond issued by the Treasury in the Central Bank portfolio is counted by the IMF as gross debt. For this reason, in the official Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 26/191), the Brazilian figure closed 2025 at 93.3% of GDP, with an annual projection of 97.8% of GDP for 2026.

3. Where the two curves agree: the speed of interest

Whatever the preferred ruler, there is a point where the Central Bank and the IMF converge: the slope of the curve and the financial weight. According to the BCB fiscal statistics note of September 30, 2026, the consolidated public sector accumulated in the 12 months up to August 2026 a total of R$ 1.18 trillion (R$ 1,182.2 billion) in nominal interest appropriated on an accrual basis (a metric that records interest incorporated into the debt stock and the result of currency swaps, distinguishing itself from immediate cash disbursement), equivalent to 8.86% of GDP.

4. Which number should you use in your analysis?

For financial directors, managers, and technology leaders:

• In monthly domestic dynamics, follow the 82.9% of GDP from the Central Bank, which reflect the volume of debt competing for private savings in local banks and funds.
• In international comparisons (where the emerging market average hovers between 55% and 65% of GDP) or analyses by risk agencies (Moodys, S&P, and Fitch), use the IMF ruler (93.3% in 2025 and 97.8% projected for 2026), by which global capital prices the sovereign risk of the country.

Continue deepening: also read Directed credit vs. free credit: why half of the cheap money makes the other half more expensive and Budget 91% tied up: why the Brazilian State collects a lot and invests almost nothing. Also explore the Brazil 2050 Agenda with an interactive simulator and the Brasília Arcade.

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References and verifiable readings

• Central Bank of Brazil (2026). Fiscal Statistics: Press Release of 09/30/2026 and Fiscal Statistics Manual (GGGD).
• International Monetary Fund (2026). Brazil: 2026 Article IV Consultation (IMF Country Report No. 26/191). Washington, DC: IMF.
• Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI / Federal Senate). Fiscal Monitoring Report (RAF): BCB vs. IMF Methodological Comparison.